I realize that A.G.I. is hard

From: Gene Michael Stover

When: 2021 December 12

This file is https://cybertiggyr.com/fe5fb902-d2f1-47db-a5e9-d6d4ef447c98.html.

Greetings, programs!

For months, I've been saying that A.G.I.[00] feels like it's just a few discoveries away.[33]

I still maintain that even a narrow problem solver in a box[55] could do a lot of good work, but I've since thought of this...

Ask it to solve the D.B. Cooper mystery.[11]

It's a hard mystery & a lot of people have worked on it without solving it, so we don't actually expect a solution.[44]

The point of my thought is that I realized how hard it would be to make a problem solver in a box to work on the D.B. Cooper mystery. Things it might need to know, things it might need to be able to think include...

• what an airplane is & why we make them,
• who hijacks them & why,
• that we purchase tickets before boarding them,
• that we pay for tickets with money,
• that people can't just walk off (or onto) an airplane when it's in flight,
• that it has a crew consisting of the pilots & the stewards,
• the power & construction of a bomb that fits in a briefcase,
• the possibility of making a fake bomb,
• the difficulty of using a parachute to exit an airplane when it's in-flight,
• that some airplanes are (or were) assembled near Seattle,
• that people work at the assembly plant & that some of those people purchase tickets & board airplanes,
• & more & more & more.

I realize now that a problem solver in a box that works on the D.B. Cooper mystery must be an A.G.I. and that it's tough to make such an A.G.I.

I get it now. We're more than just a few insights away from A.G.I. (But I am still inspired by The Master Algorithm & recommend it.)

Notes

00. A.G.I.

A.G.I. stands for Artificial General Intelligence. wikipedia:///Artificial_general_intelligence

11. D.B. Cooper

D.B. Cooper is the folklore name for the perpetrator of a famous airplane hijacking in 1971. Society does not have wide-spread agreement on the identity of the perpetrator. wikipedia:///D._B._Cooper

33. it's just a few discoveries away

In this belief, I guess I'm inspired by Pedro Domingos's book The Master Algorithm, which I recommend as an enjoyable read for programmers. wikipedia:///The_Master_Algorithm

44. we don't actually expect a solution

In the D.B. Cooper mystery, it's a success just to get a couple new, insightful speculations. That's true whether a sleuth is an automaton or a human.

55. problem solver in a box

That's how I think of a useful artificial intelligence, whether narrow or general.

I'd like for us humans to setup one & ask it to solve a problem such as a cure for a disease, or what's up with “dark matter”, or whether Trump winning the 2016 election implies that we really do live in a universe so insane that Douglas Adams might as well have created it.

We'd probably have to start our problem solver in a box by telling it everything we know about the problem's domain (which we might do by hooking it up to databases). It would be a disembodied mind, so it'd have to ask us to do things for it such as run experiments or gather more information. Eventually, it'd tell us a solution. Along the way, it might tell us some new insights.

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